EI Nino Impact on the Economy what is EI Nino?




There is a phase of ‘El Niño– Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO), which refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

El Niño (/ɛlˈnnj//ˈnɪn/Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America, El Niño is defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures when compared with the average value.

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference betweenTahiti and Darwin, Australia.[8] El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning there is below normal pressure over Tahiti and above normal pressure of Darwin.

The studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, is shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend,[51] the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.[52]

The exact changes happening to ENSO in the future is uncertain:[53] Different models make different predictions.[54][55] It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become weaker than it was.[56] It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.[57] More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth’s climate.[58



Implications of Coaching & Market Dynamics

The implications for coaching are significant:  Advising traders to “stick to your plans” and “follow your process” works as long as market regimes are stable.  Then it doesn’t work.  In a world of changing markets, adaptability is the new discipline.

The implications for mentorship are also significant.  Teaching the same chart patterns and technical rules at all times to all traders is like using the same training for soldiers who will be performing in the desert, at sea, and in rainforests against established military forces at some times and insurgent guerrillas at others. If there’s one thing elite fighting forces and well trained athletic teams know, it’s that you study the opponent and adapt your strategy and tactics to the situation.

How many traders truly study markets and adapt their strategies and tactics to the threats and opportunities they identify?

Lupin Eyeing Acquisition For Business Expansion

Lupin India’s third largest pharmaceutical company in terms of market capitalisation produces and develops a wide range of branded and generic formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It has its presence in US, Europe, Japan among the foreign countries. And for a bigger share in the international market, the company is looking for acquisitions that will help to build a strong portfolio for the company. 


Prior to this, the company has acquired Nanomi BV in Netherland on February 03, 2014. By doing so the company has entered into the technology intensive complex injectables space. While on March 27 this year, the company has acquired 100% equity stake in Laboratories Grin, Mexico. This acquisition has helped the company to enter Mexico, one of the fastest growing pharmaceutical markets in the world. Since 2007 Lupin has acquired nine brand and companies, which includes Tokyo based generic injectables manufacturer Irom Pharmaceutical. Lupin has also made a joint venture with Japan’s Yoshindo to focus on clinical development and commercialisation of biosimilar. So from this we can say that the company is looking for expanding its market share by acquiring new companies. This will help the company to increase its product portfolio which in turn will increase its profitability as well.

Looking on the valuation, the scrip of the company is trading at a price to earnings (P/E) of 23.86x, which is low as compared to P/E of industry leaders like Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Ranbaxy Laboratories.


Is trading a useful activity a thoughtful reader writes:

“I am unable to reconcile as to how traders are providing any value to the society by what they are doing. I accept that we may be called providers of liquidity (which I really doubt we are) or guys who determine correct asset price helping bring market efficiency, but it still does not make trading relevant from a social perspective…I sometimes feel that as a trader we are pretty selfish guys concerned with our own well being. When we make profits, we do not regard the losses someone else made and trading seems like a zero sum game to me.”


The real issue here is the assumption that one’s value–and the value of one’s activities–is a function of help to others. 

The great scientific discoveries, for the most part, have reflected the very selfish concerns of investigators who become consumed with finding the answers to challenging questions. Doing what they love and following their passion does indeed bring benefit to others: that is the happy synthesis. In starting a business and seeking success, an entrepreneur brings jobs and needed goods and services to the world. In creating a great work of art, a painter absorbs herself in her medium and brings something of beauty to others.