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Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader

Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders that few people know about. While a book on his life written by Edwin Lefèvre, “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” (1923), is highly regarded as a must-read for all traders, it deserves more than a passing recommendation. Livermore, who is the author of “How to Trade in Stocks”(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today’s dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used.

The enormity of his success becomes even more staggering when considering that he traded on his own, using his own funds, his own system, and not trading anyone else’s capital in conjunction. There is no question that times have changed since Mr. Livermore traded stocks and commodities. Markets were thinly traded, compared to today, and the moves volatile. Jesse speaks of sliding major stocks multiple points with the purchase or sale of 1,000 shares. And yet, despite the difference in the markets, such automation increased liquidity, technology, regulation and a host of other factors that still drive the markets today.

The Test of Time
Given that this trader’s rules still apply, and the price patterns he looked for are still very relevant today, we will look at a summary of the patterns Jesse traded, as well his timing indicators and trading rules.

Read more: Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/legendary-trader-jesse-livermore.asp#ixzz3k117aEE7 
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Hindsight Bias Continued

In hindsight things are obvious that were not obvious from the outset; one is able to evaluate past choices more clearly than at the time of the choice.

Perfect understanding of  events only after they have happened – The twenty twenty hindsight Bias.

Taking into consideration the Economy or gaining the perspective on the same; elaborating on the Perfect Economy.

The perfect economic system

REPLYThu 20 Feb, 2014 01:09 pm
What do you guys think the perfect economic system would look like?

Personally, I think the world should be the following:
1) consolidate into one global exchange (stock markets etc)
2) one global government, 
3) one global set of constitutions, including legislation that governs every moving part in the economy.
4) globalized intelligence/skill/aptitude/potentiality tests that determine which jobs an individual would be best suited for. I.E usually you end up in a job that best suits your strengths, and place these individuals on a track plan to be the best at these things. 
5) Limit maximum potential wealth so that more demanding jobs are higher paying, but not so much so that it exploits lower demanding jobs that are equally important to the sustenance of the global economy. For example, in mcdonalds, someone needs to make the burger. If you lose all your burger flippers, you’re suddenly losing out on efficiency. In a competitive market, this leads to loss of revenue.

On a side note:

I also think that all drug addicts and homeless( those non working/ those mentally unstable people should be placed outside of the city and be rehabilitated to be reintegrated back into society. They will be provided with medical care, housing, food all at no cost. In exchange, they are required to do minimal hours of labour for sustenance of that community and are paid a low wage. Over time, the hope is that, the minimal labour resocializes them to want to work in areas they want. In terms of drug addicts, provide these individuals with gradual diminishing doses of w.e their poison be in exchange for labour. In that sense, the belief is that, this weens the body to be not dependent on it.

Convicts should be turned into a global workforce that does the shitty of the shitty jobs. That way they are earning their keep. In canada, the average prisoner costs the system about $100,000. They shouldn’t be rewarded for going to jail. One prisoner is equivalent to hiring two employees in another field. Those convicts convicted of murder/rape/etc with intent, should be put into the hardest of labour jobs. Or just house all these people into one large cell and let them police themselves. Why should convicts go into prison skinny and come out jacked ? why should these people who’ve disregarded other people’s rights be given rights? Humanity in this sense is a joke. The old adage an eye for an eye and the world is blind, is moot here. You rid the world of killers and rapists, and you’ll likely have less people willing to do those things. 

URL: http://able2know.org/topic/235736-1

 

Definition of ‘Credit Rating’

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Credit rating is an analysis of the credit risks associated with a financial instrument or a financial entity.
Definition: Credit rating is an analysis of the credit risks associated with a financial instrument or a financial entity. It is a rating given to a particular entity based on the credentials and the extent to which the financial statements of the entity are sound, in terms of borrowing and lending that has been done in the past.

Description: Usually, is in the form of a detailed report based on the financial history of borrowing or lending and credit worthiness of the entity or the person obtained from the statements of its assets and liabilities with an aim to determine their ability to meet the debt obligations. It helps in assessment of the solvency of the particular entity. These ratings based on detailed analysis are published by various credit rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service, and ICRA, to name a few.

NSIC – CREDIT RATING

Performance  & Credit Rating Scheme

NSIC – CREDIT RATING

Need of a Performance and Credit Rating Mechanism for SSIs (now Micro and Small Enterprises) was highlighted in Union Budget’04-05. A scheme for SSIs (now Micro and Small Enterprises) has been formulated in consultation with Indian Banks’ Association(IBA) and Rating Agencies. NSIC has been appointed the nodal agency for implementation of this scheme through empanelled agencies.

Benefits of Performance and Credit Rating

  • An independent, trusted third party opinion on capabilities and credit-worthiness of SSIs
  • Availability of credit at attractive interest
  • Recognition in global trade
  • Prompt sanctions of Credit from Banks and Financial Institutions
  • Subsidized rating fee structure for SSIs
  • Facilitate vendors/buyers in capability and capacity assessment of SSIs
  • Enable SSIs to ascertain the strengths and weaknesses of their existing operations and take corrective measures.

Benefits to Banks and Financial Institutions

Availability of an independent evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of an SSI unit seeking credit and thereby enabling banks and financial institutions manage their credit risk

Salient Features

  • A combination of credit and performance factors including operations, finance, business and management risk
  • Uniform Rating Scale for all empanelled rating agencies.
  • SSIs have the liberty to choose among the empanelled Rating Agencies.
  • Turn-Over based Fee structure
  • Partial Reimbursement of Rating Fee through NSIC

Source : http://www.tradingeconomics.com

:  www.nsic.co.in

What is Technical Writing?

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Technical writing is sometimes defined as simplifying the complex.  Inherent in such a concise and deceptively simple definition is a whole range of skills and characteristics that address nearly every field of human endeavor at some level.  A significant subset of the broader field of technical communication, technical writing involves communicating complex information to those who need it to accomplish some task or goal.

Oxford Dictionaries Online (ODO) provides four definitions for the word technical, all of which relate to the profession of technical writing:

  1. of or relating to a particular subject, art, or craft, or its techniques
  2. of, involving, or concerned with applied and industrial sciences
  3. resulting from mechanical failure
  4. according to a strict application or interpretation of the law or rules

With these definitions in mind, it’s easy to see that technical writing has been around as long as there have been written languages.  Modern references to technical writing and technical communications as a profession begin around the time of World War I as technical developments in warfare, industry and telecommunications began to evolve more rapidly.  Although many people today think of technical writing as creating manuals for computers and software, the practice of technical writing takes place in any field or industry where complex ideas, concepts, processes or procedures need to be communicated.  In fact, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics defines technical writers as those who “…put technical information into easily understandable language. They work primarily in information-technology-related industries, coordinating the development and dissemination of technical content for a variety of users; however, a growing number of technical communicators are using technical content to resolve business communications problems in a diversifying number of industries.”

The Goal of Technical Writing

Good technical writing results in relevant, useful and accurate information geared to specifically targeted audiences in order to enable a set of actions on the part of the audience in pursuit of a defined goal.  The goal may be using a software application, operating industrial equipment, preventing accidents, safely consuming a packaged food, assessing a medical condition, complying with a law, coaching a sports team, or any of an infinite range of possible activities.  If the activity requires expertise or skill to perform, then technical writing is a necessary component.

Only a small proportion of technical writing is actually aimed at the general consumer audience. Businesses and organizations deliver vast amounts of technical writing to explain internal procedures, design and produce products, implement processes, sell products and services to other businesses, or define policies. The leading professional association representing technical writing, Society for Technical Communication, hosts a number of special interest groups for these different aspects of the profession.

Technical Writing Categories

Technical writing comprises the largest segment of technical communications.  Technical writers work together with editors, graphic designers and illustrators, document specialists, content managers, instructional designers, trainers, and analysts to produce an amazing variety of deliverables, including:

Contracts Online and embedded help Requirements specifications
Customer Service scripts Policy documents Simulations
Demonstrations Process flows Training course materials
Design documents Project documents User manuals
FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) Product catalogs Warning labels
How-to videos Product packaging Web-based Training
Instructions Proposals Websites
Knowledge base articles Release notes White papers
Reference guides

Technical writing follows a development lifecycle that often parallels the product development lifecycle of an organization:

  1. Identification of needs, audience(s), and scope
  2. Planning
  3. Research & content development
  4. Testing / review and revision
  5. Delivery / production
  6. Evaluation and feedback
  7. Disposition (revision, archiving, or destruction)

Technical Writing and Integrated Technical Communications

Enormous changes have occurred in the field of technical writing in the last 20 years, particularly with how technical content is researched, and how it is produced and delivered.  As a result, more organizations are developing integrated technical communications to effectively manage the information that must be communicated. They also build a content management strategy that encompasses delivery of technical, marketing and promotion, internal and other communications messages between the organization and its customers, suppliers, investors and employees.

source : http://www.techwirl.com

Long Put

The investor buys a put contract that is compatible with the expected timing and size of a downturn. Although a put usually doesn’t appreciate $1 for every $1 that the stock declines, the percentage gains can be significant. the put holder is willing to forfeit 100% of the premium paid and is convinced a decline is imminent, one choice is to wait until the last trading day. If the stock falls, the put might generate a nice profit after all. However, if a quick correction looks unlikely, it might make sense to sell the put while it still has some time value. A timely decision might recover part or even all of the investment.

Outlook

The investor is looking for a sharp decline in the stock’s price during the life of the option.

This strategy is compatible with a variety of long-term forecasts for the underlying stock, from very bearish to neutral. However, if the investor is firmly bullish on the underlying stock in the long run, other strategy alternatives might be more suitable.

Summary

This strategy consists of buying puts as a means to profit if the stock price moves lower. It is a candidate for bearish investors who want to participate in an anticipated downturn, but without the risk and inconveniences of selling the stock short.

The time horizon is limited to the life of the option.

Motivation

A put buyer has the opportunity to profit from a fall in the stock’s price, without risking an unlimited amount of capital, as a short stock seller does. What’s more, the leverage involved in a long put strategy can generate attractive percentage returns if the forecast is right.

Another common use for puts is hedging a long stock position. It is described separately under protective put.

Variations

These remarks are targeted toward the investor who buys puts as a standalone strategy. See the discussion on protective puts for a discussion on using long puts as a way to hedge or exit a long stock position.

Max Loss

The maximum loss is limited. The worst that can happen is for the stock price to be above the strike price at expiration with the put owner still holding the position. The put option expires worthless and the loss is the price paid for the put.

Max Gain

The profit potential is limited but substantial. The best that can happen is for the stock to become worthless. In that case, the investor can theoretically do one of two things: sell the put for its intrinsic value or exercise the put to sell the underlying stock at the strike price and simultaneously buy the equivalent amount of shares in the market at, theoretically, zero cost. The investor’s profit would be the difference between the strike price and zero, less the premium paid, commissions and fees.

Profit/Loss

The profit potential is significant, and the losses are limited to the premium paid.

Although a put option is unlikely to appreciate $1 for every $1 that the stock declines during most of the option’s life, the gains could be substantial if the stock falls sharply. Generally speaking, the earlier and more dramatic the drop in the stock’s value, the better for the long put strategy. Given that the premium investment can be small relative to the stock value it represents, the potential percentage gains and losses can be large, with the caveat that they must be realized by the time the option expires.

All other things being equal, an option typically loses time value premium with every passing day, and the rate of time value erosion tends to accelerate. That means the long put holder may not be able to re-sell the option at a profit unless at least one major pricing factor changes favorably. The most obvious would be an decline in the underlying stock’s price. A rise in volatility could also help significantly by boosting the put’s time value.

An option holder cannot lose more than the initial price paid for the option.

Breakeven

At expiration, the strategy breaks even if the stock price equals the strike price minus the cost of the option. Any stock price below that level produces a net profit. In other words:

Breakeven = strike – premium

Volatility

An increase in implied volatility would have a positive impact on this strategy, all other things being equal. Volatility tends to boost the value of any long option strategy, because it indicates a greater mathematical probability that the stock will move enough to give the option intrinsic value (or add to its current intrinsic value) by expiration day.

By the same logic, a decline in volatility has a tendency to lower the long put strategy’s value, regardless of the overall stock price trend.

Time Decay

As with most long option strategies, the passage of time has a negative impact, all other things being equal. As time remaining until expiration disappears, the statistical chances of achieving further gains shrink. That tends to be reflected in eroding time premiums, which put downward pressure on the put’s market value.

Once time value disappears, all that remains is intrinsic value. For in-the-money options, that is the difference between the going stock price and the strike price. For at-the-money and out-of-the-money options, intrinsic value is zero.

Assignment Risk

None. The investor is in control.

Expiration Risk

Slight. If the option is in-the-money at expiration, it may be exercised on your behalf by your brokerage firm. Since this investor did not own the underlying stock, an unexpected exercise could require urgent measures to find the stock for delivery at settlement. A short stock position might be a problematic outcome for an individual investor.

Every investor carrying a long option position into expiration is urged to verify all related procedures with their brokerage firm: automatic exercise minimums, exercise notification deadlines, etc.

Comments

All option investors have reason to monitor the underlying stock and keep track of dividends. This applies to long put investors, too.

On an ex-dividend date, the amount of the dividend is deducted from the value of the underlying stock. Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower stock value typically boosts the put option’s value. The effect is foreseeable and usually gets factored more gradually, but dividend dates could nevertheless be one consideration in deciding when it might be optimal to close out the put position.

Exercising a put would result in the sale of the underlying stock. These comments focus on long puts as a standalone strategy, so exercising the option would result in a short stock position, something not all individuals would choose as a goal. The plan here is to resell the put at a profit before expiration. The investor is hoping for a dramatic downturn; the sooner, the better.

Timing is of the essence. Some put holders set price targets or re-evaluation dates; others ‘play it by ear.’ Either way, all value must be realized before the put expires. If the expected results have not materialized as expiration draws near, a careful investor is ready to re-evaluate.

Long Put

Net Position (at expiration)

EXAMPLE

Long 1 XYZ 60 put

MAXIMUM GAIN

Strike price – premium paid

MAXIMUM LOSS

Premium paid

Source:  www.optionseducation.org Read more