Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader

Born in 1877, Jesse Livermore is one of the greatest traders that few people know about. While a book on his life written by Edwin Lefèvre, “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” (1923), is highly regarded as a must-read for all traders, it deserves more than a passing recommendation. Livermore, who is the author of “How to Trade in Stocks”(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today’s dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used.

The enormity of his success becomes even more staggering when considering that he traded on his own, using his own funds, his own system, and not trading anyone else’s capital in conjunction. There is no question that times have changed since Mr. Livermore traded stocks and commodities. Markets were thinly traded, compared to today, and the moves volatile. Jesse speaks of sliding major stocks multiple points with the purchase or sale of 1,000 shares. And yet, despite the difference in the markets, such automation increased liquidity, technology, regulation and a host of other factors that still drive the markets today.

The Test of Time
Given that this trader’s rules still apply, and the price patterns he looked for are still very relevant today, we will look at a summary of the patterns Jesse traded, as well his timing indicators and trading rules.

Read more: Jesse Livermore: Lessons From A Legendary Trader http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/legendary-trader-jesse-livermore.asp#ixzz3k117aEE7 
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Hindsight Bias Continued

In hindsight things are obvious that were not obvious from the outset; one is able to evaluate past choices more clearly than at the time of the choice.

Perfect understanding of  events only after they have happened – The twenty twenty hindsight Bias.

Taking into consideration the Economy or gaining the perspective on the same; elaborating on the Perfect Economy.

The perfect economic system

REPLYThu 20 Feb, 2014 01:09 pm
What do you guys think the perfect economic system would look like?

Personally, I think the world should be the following:
1) consolidate into one global exchange (stock markets etc)
2) one global government, 
3) one global set of constitutions, including legislation that governs every moving part in the economy.
4) globalized intelligence/skill/aptitude/potentiality tests that determine which jobs an individual would be best suited for. I.E usually you end up in a job that best suits your strengths, and place these individuals on a track plan to be the best at these things. 
5) Limit maximum potential wealth so that more demanding jobs are higher paying, but not so much so that it exploits lower demanding jobs that are equally important to the sustenance of the global economy. For example, in mcdonalds, someone needs to make the burger. If you lose all your burger flippers, you’re suddenly losing out on efficiency. In a competitive market, this leads to loss of revenue.

On a side note:

I also think that all drug addicts and homeless( those non working/ those mentally unstable people should be placed outside of the city and be rehabilitated to be reintegrated back into society. They will be provided with medical care, housing, food all at no cost. In exchange, they are required to do minimal hours of labour for sustenance of that community and are paid a low wage. Over time, the hope is that, the minimal labour resocializes them to want to work in areas they want. In terms of drug addicts, provide these individuals with gradual diminishing doses of w.e their poison be in exchange for labour. In that sense, the belief is that, this weens the body to be not dependent on it.

Convicts should be turned into a global workforce that does the shitty of the shitty jobs. That way they are earning their keep. In canada, the average prisoner costs the system about $100,000. They shouldn’t be rewarded for going to jail. One prisoner is equivalent to hiring two employees in another field. Those convicts convicted of murder/rape/etc with intent, should be put into the hardest of labour jobs. Or just house all these people into one large cell and let them police themselves. Why should convicts go into prison skinny and come out jacked ? why should these people who’ve disregarded other people’s rights be given rights? Humanity in this sense is a joke. The old adage an eye for an eye and the world is blind, is moot here. You rid the world of killers and rapists, and you’ll likely have less people willing to do those things. 

URL: http://able2know.org/topic/235736-1

 

Long Put

The investor buys a put contract that is compatible with the expected timing and size of a downturn. Although a put usually doesn’t appreciate $1 for every $1 that the stock declines, the percentage gains can be significant. the put holder is willing to forfeit 100% of the premium paid and is convinced a decline is imminent, one choice is to wait until the last trading day. If the stock falls, the put might generate a nice profit after all. However, if a quick correction looks unlikely, it might make sense to sell the put while it still has some time value. A timely decision might recover part or even all of the investment.

Outlook

The investor is looking for a sharp decline in the stock’s price during the life of the option.

This strategy is compatible with a variety of long-term forecasts for the underlying stock, from very bearish to neutral. However, if the investor is firmly bullish on the underlying stock in the long run, other strategy alternatives might be more suitable.

Summary

This strategy consists of buying puts as a means to profit if the stock price moves lower. It is a candidate for bearish investors who want to participate in an anticipated downturn, but without the risk and inconveniences of selling the stock short.

The time horizon is limited to the life of the option.

Motivation

A put buyer has the opportunity to profit from a fall in the stock’s price, without risking an unlimited amount of capital, as a short stock seller does. What’s more, the leverage involved in a long put strategy can generate attractive percentage returns if the forecast is right.

Another common use for puts is hedging a long stock position. It is described separately under protective put.

Variations

These remarks are targeted toward the investor who buys puts as a standalone strategy. See the discussion on protective puts for a discussion on using long puts as a way to hedge or exit a long stock position.

Max Loss

The maximum loss is limited. The worst that can happen is for the stock price to be above the strike price at expiration with the put owner still holding the position. The put option expires worthless and the loss is the price paid for the put.

Max Gain

The profit potential is limited but substantial. The best that can happen is for the stock to become worthless. In that case, the investor can theoretically do one of two things: sell the put for its intrinsic value or exercise the put to sell the underlying stock at the strike price and simultaneously buy the equivalent amount of shares in the market at, theoretically, zero cost. The investor’s profit would be the difference between the strike price and zero, less the premium paid, commissions and fees.

Profit/Loss

The profit potential is significant, and the losses are limited to the premium paid.

Although a put option is unlikely to appreciate $1 for every $1 that the stock declines during most of the option’s life, the gains could be substantial if the stock falls sharply. Generally speaking, the earlier and more dramatic the drop in the stock’s value, the better for the long put strategy. Given that the premium investment can be small relative to the stock value it represents, the potential percentage gains and losses can be large, with the caveat that they must be realized by the time the option expires.

All other things being equal, an option typically loses time value premium with every passing day, and the rate of time value erosion tends to accelerate. That means the long put holder may not be able to re-sell the option at a profit unless at least one major pricing factor changes favorably. The most obvious would be an decline in the underlying stock’s price. A rise in volatility could also help significantly by boosting the put’s time value.

An option holder cannot lose more than the initial price paid for the option.

Breakeven

At expiration, the strategy breaks even if the stock price equals the strike price minus the cost of the option. Any stock price below that level produces a net profit. In other words:

Breakeven = strike – premium

Volatility

An increase in implied volatility would have a positive impact on this strategy, all other things being equal. Volatility tends to boost the value of any long option strategy, because it indicates a greater mathematical probability that the stock will move enough to give the option intrinsic value (or add to its current intrinsic value) by expiration day.

By the same logic, a decline in volatility has a tendency to lower the long put strategy’s value, regardless of the overall stock price trend.

Time Decay

As with most long option strategies, the passage of time has a negative impact, all other things being equal. As time remaining until expiration disappears, the statistical chances of achieving further gains shrink. That tends to be reflected in eroding time premiums, which put downward pressure on the put’s market value.

Once time value disappears, all that remains is intrinsic value. For in-the-money options, that is the difference between the going stock price and the strike price. For at-the-money and out-of-the-money options, intrinsic value is zero.

Assignment Risk

None. The investor is in control.

Expiration Risk

Slight. If the option is in-the-money at expiration, it may be exercised on your behalf by your brokerage firm. Since this investor did not own the underlying stock, an unexpected exercise could require urgent measures to find the stock for delivery at settlement. A short stock position might be a problematic outcome for an individual investor.

Every investor carrying a long option position into expiration is urged to verify all related procedures with their brokerage firm: automatic exercise minimums, exercise notification deadlines, etc.

Comments

All option investors have reason to monitor the underlying stock and keep track of dividends. This applies to long put investors, too.

On an ex-dividend date, the amount of the dividend is deducted from the value of the underlying stock. Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower stock value typically boosts the put option’s value. The effect is foreseeable and usually gets factored more gradually, but dividend dates could nevertheless be one consideration in deciding when it might be optimal to close out the put position.

Exercising a put would result in the sale of the underlying stock. These comments focus on long puts as a standalone strategy, so exercising the option would result in a short stock position, something not all individuals would choose as a goal. The plan here is to resell the put at a profit before expiration. The investor is hoping for a dramatic downturn; the sooner, the better.

Timing is of the essence. Some put holders set price targets or re-evaluation dates; others ‘play it by ear.’ Either way, all value must be realized before the put expires. If the expected results have not materialized as expiration draws near, a careful investor is ready to re-evaluate.

Long Put

Net Position (at expiration)

EXAMPLE

Long 1 XYZ 60 put

MAXIMUM GAIN

Strike price – premium paid

MAXIMUM LOSS

Premium paid

Source:  www.optionseducation.org Read more

11 or 12 Things I Learned About Life While Daytrading Millions of Dollars -by James Altucher

I was a day trader for many years, and it almost killed me.

I made money by making profits on my own money and also taking a percentage of the profits for the people I traded for. I traded up to $40 million or $50 million a day at my peak. I did this from 2001 to 2004.

I learned about day trading but I also learned a lot about myself and what I was good at, what I was horrible at, and what I was psychotic at. Things that had nothing to do with day trading.

Day trading is the best job in the world on the days you make money. You make a trade, then maybe 20 minutes later you are out of the trade with a profit, and for the rest of the day you think about how much money you made.

It’s the worst job in the world on a bad day. I would make a trade, it would go against me, and then I wanted my heart to stop so my blood would stop thumping so loudly.

I did it for years, though, because I was unemployable in every other way.

Here’s what I learned. All of these lessons I will certainly use today, many years after I stopped day trading.

A) You can’t predict the future. Everyone thinks they can. But they can’t.

This applies not just to trading but everything. You could be married for 10 years and the next thing you know you are divorced and you would not have predicted that.

You could be healthy all your life and drink your vegetables and exercise and reduce stress, and a year later you could be dead from cancer.

You’d have much less stress if you let go of trying to predict the future.

You can always seek to increase the odds in your favor. if I don’t jump off bridges, for instance, it’s more likely I’ll be alive a year from now. But certainly a path to unhappiness is thinking the future can be predicted and controlled.

B) Hope is not a strategy.

If you get to the point where you “hope” you don’t get ruined, then you did something wrong beforehand.

For instance, if you plan a wedding outside and you don’t have a backup plan in case it rains, then you probably mis-planned your wedding, unless you are getting married in a desert.

“Hoping” is not a bad thing. I hope that every day my life goes perfectly.

But if hoping is the only thing I’m relying on, then it means I didn’t really look at all the possible outcomes of something that was important to me.

C) Uncertainty is your best friend.

A hundred percent of opportunities in life are created because people are uncertain about almost everything in their lives.

We are constantly trying to close the enormous gap between the things we are certain about and the things we are uncertain about, and almost every invention, product, Internet service, book, whatever has been created to help us close that gap.

Sometimes this is hard. If your husband betrays and leaves you, you often feel like crawling on the floor and burning all the self-help books. They all lied.

It’s hard to feel “in the now” or to “positive think” when life feels like it’s over. I’ve tried. For me it’s too hard.

But at the very least you can say…”help me.” You can say it to your close friends. You can say it something inside of yourself.

“Help me” is the most powerful, and most forgotten, prayer.

D) Taking risks versus reducing risk.

Some people take too many risks and they go bankrupt. This happened to me. And sometimes people are too cautious and don’t take enough risks.

When I first started day trading, I was so afraid of risk that if I had a small profit, I’d end the trade. But then I would take big losses and that would wipe out all my profits.

The key is that you can take larger and larger risks if you work on better and better ways to deal with those risks.

For instance, I might be able to risk marrying someone if I know she is not a hard-core drug addict who regularly betrays the people she is close to.

I can risk driving without a license if I always stay below the speed limit (I know this is a stupid risk, but still). Once you have a method of reducing risks, it’s easier to make trades or decisions about anything.

E) Diversification.

Often I get emails, “I really want ONE job but they don’t seem to want me and now I’m miserable. How can I get that job?”

Well…you can’t.

And you’re going to be unhappy. You can’t wish yourself a job.

When I was raising money to day trade, I probably contacted over 1,000 people. When I was starting an Internet business I started over a dozen Internet businesses and watched all of them fail but one. When I was trying to sell my Internet business I contacted over a dozen companies (although Google broke my heart – damn you Google!).

When I wanted to get married, I went on lots of dates. Claudia’s approach was even smarter – she wouldn’t waste time with dinners. She would only go to tea with guys. Within the first 20 seconds you know if you are attracted. So keep it to a tea.

F) Say “no.”

In day trading, if something is not working out, even if your heart wants it to work out, you have to say “No” and cut your losses.

If a business relationship is not working out, don’t put more energy and time into it.

There is a cognitive bias called “committment bias.” We think because we’ve already put time and energy (or money) into something that we have to stick with it. But this is just a mental bias. Say no to it.

You have to decide every moment if this is the situation you want to be in.

Just because you were in the situation a moment ago, or yesterday, or for 10 years, doesn’t mean the situation is right for you anymore.

G) Health.

Day trading pulls everything out of you. It sucks the soul out of your body, blends it up, and then explodes. It doesn’t turn into a nice smoothie. It explodes.

So you have to take care of yourself. If you don’t sleep enough, if you don’t eat well, exercise, be around positive people, be grateful for what you have, blah blah blah, you will lose all of your money and go bankrupt.

And obviously, this applies to everything else in life. Every day, what small thing can you do to become a slightly better you?

The reason we get so attracted to “safe” cubicle jobs is that the pain is more subtle and sneaks up on us. It’s not the blender-drama of day trading so the need for health on a daily basis doesn’t seem as important. But it is.

H) Laughter.

The only way to survive is to laugh. There’s that saying: “Man makes plans but God laughs.” Well, you might as well be on the same side as God.

I) “This is crazy” means you’re crazy.

I’ve seen it a million times. Guy makes a trade. The market goes against him. He says “this is crazy” and puts more money into the trade. And then he loses all his money and goes crazy. I’ve had to talk people off the ledge or tell them to put the gun down.

The market is never crazy. The world is never crazy. And I will go so far as to say that your girlfriend who just lied to you about where she spent the night is not crazy.

I only care about you. And you’re effin’ crazy if you thought the world was going to line up any other way than the way it lined up.

Tough on you.

I know when I feel like, “ugh, this situation is insane” that the first place I need to look is at me.

I am insane.

J) It doesn’t matter if a trade (or a day, or a life) is good or bad.

Good and bad days happen. But life is about a billion little moments that add up to all the things around you. If you let one of those moments have too much control then you are bound to be mostly miserable.

I was mostly miserable during the period I was day trading. I let that aspect of my life take control. So I stopped focusing on being a good husband, a good father, a good friend, a good anything.

All of my other constituencies went to hell.

I would have nightmares. I would lose sleep. I would wake up many mornings and go to the church across the street so I could be by myself and pray. What would I pray? “Jesus, please make the markets go in my direction today.”

I’m Jewish. Nobody answered my prayers.

K) It’s never about the money.

Every day I get emails like, “Can you show me how to day trade?”

“NO!”

I know a thousand day traders and only two that won’t go bankrupt. So what makes anyone think they will have an edge? How many people listen to me?

Zero.

How come?

Because people are sick of their lives, their relationships, their jobs, and all the lies that have been told to them ever since they learned how to walk.

They want freedom from the BS.

I get it.

Day trading is the dream. You can make enough money to not care. To do it from anywhere. To be happy.

It won’t work. But people don’t want to believe it. Most people think they have that one special something that will make it work for them.

And it’s true – they do have that one special something. But you can’t get there by day trading first. You can skip right to the being happy part. You can skip right to being free.

But we never learned that. We were taught we had to do something first to earn freedom. We were taught that suffering was the currency to buy happiness.

Okay, go do it. Then cry about it. Then get scared. Then curse the craziness. Then cry more. None of that will make you happy.

Then read this blog post again. Not because it will make you happy. But because I like when people read my posts.

And laugh.

Correction offers good value in pharma stocks Sun, Lupin, Cipla have fallen 9-15% but fundamental prospects remain unchanged as analysts expect 15-25% earnings growth Ujjval Jauhari

Shares of pharma majors as Sun Pharma, Lupin and Cipla have corrected meaningfully in the past two months. From its 52-week high in mid-October, Sun is down over 12 per cent, Lupin has corrected by more than nine per cent, while Cipla has fallen by almost 15 per cent from a 52-week high of Rs 450 in September. The correction is mainly due to investors churning their portfolio in favour of other sectors. Fundamentally, there seems to be no reason for this correction and the strong show posted by these companies during the September quarter stands testimony.

Arvind Bothra at Religare Capital Markets feels it is just a matter of time when stocks like Sun rebound. Though some argue that valuations remain stretched for Sun and Lupin, analysts at JPMorgan observe they like Sun and Lupin’s business models and believe Sun’s premium over peers is justifiable given its growth record. Same is the case for Lupin and Cipla. While Sun, Lupin and Cipla closed at Rs 578, Rs 852 and Rs 383 levels on Wednesday, the one-year consensus target price of Rs 664, Rs 978 and Rs 459 (according to analysts polled by Bloomberg) indicates an upside of 14-20 per cent.

Sun Pharma
Sun stands tall with strong growth prospects across all markets. Its US subsidiary, Taro (a fourth of consolidated sales), which felt the heat in June quarter due to increased competition in key dermatology products like Nystatin Triamcinolone (about 12 per cent of Taro’s revenues), rebounded in September quarter. Hitesh Mahida at Fortune Broking says Taro’s results indicate that it has taken some price hikes in other products. Moving forward, for the week ending November 1 (referring to IMS prescription data) Nomura reports indicate that in Nystatin Triam Cream, Taro’s market share is stabilising at 60 per cent (up 70 basis points week-on-week). In October, Taro’s NDA launches in the dermatology segment namely, Topicort spray and Calcitreine ointment, have continued to gain share, adds Mahida.

Taro’s recent share buyback proposal of $200 million should also prove positive for earnings. Analysts at HSBC observe that assuming the offer is fully subscribed at maximum offer price ($97.5 a share), it can push FY14 earnings estimates for Taro by five per cent. HSBC analysts maintain their overweight rating with target price of Rs 725.

After growing 17 per cent year-on-year in September quarter, IMS data show Sun’s domestic business grew 19 per cent year-on-year in October (best in industry). Sun’s other US arm, URL, is also likely to see continued traction led by supplies of anti-bacterial, Doxycycline. The launch of anti-diabetic, Prandin (in August 2013), on exclusivity is likely to garner $30 million in revenues and $15 million in profits during first six months of exclusivity. Overall, analysts expect Sun’s EPS to rise by over 35 per cent in FY14 and another 15 per cent in FY15.

Lupin
The company has seen a strong rebound in the September quarter performance. After a blip in June quarter due to the new drug pricing policy, its domestic business rebounded with nine per cent growth in September quarter. Nilesh Gupta, MD, Lupin, sees the domestic growth rebounding to 18-20 per cent in a few quarters.

The US business contributing 32 per cent to overall revenues continues to grow strongly. Its current portfolio is growing well and further growth is likely to come from the expansion in Oral contraceptives, Lipid control drugs, besides growth in ophthalmology, dermatology and planned asthma range. Analysts at JP Morgan estimate Lupin’s US generic sales to grow at 23 per cent CAGR over FY14-16.

Lupin’s Japanese revenues, which declined year-on-year by 12 per cent in June quarter and six per cent in September quarter, are also likely to see a turnaround in second half of FY14 as contract manufacturing picks up, besides launch of more products. All these should help Lupin post 19 per cent annual growth in EPS for FY14 and FY15.

Cipla
While Cipla continues to see good growth in the domestic market, it has changed its strategy for the export markets and is working on its own front-ends. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch see Cipla moving away from supply chain model to front-end model, which requires higher front-end investments and low capex. While this will have impact on margins in near-term, it will lead to strong free cash flow (FCF) generation. They highlight it has generated FCF of Rs 520 crore in FY13 and expect the rate to accelerate as capex and working capital requirements remain stable.

As a matter of fact, Cipla’s cash conversion cycle has improved by 18 days in first half of FY14. Overall, Cipla’s EPS is seen increasing by 20-23 per cent each year in FY14 and FY15, led by expanded reach in global markets.

Toward an Economics of Sustainability John E. Ikerd University of Missouri May, 1997

The question of sustainability has become an important economic, political, and social issue. Major international conferences have been held to discuss the issue of global sustainability. A President’s Council on Sustainable Development was formed to address sustainability questions confronting the United States. After nearly a decade of indecision, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has officially embraced sustainable agriculture as a priority issue for the future. Questions of sustainability has also become commonplace both in professional publications and in the popular media.

The Issue of Sustainability

Sustainability is a long run, people-centered concept. There have been many attempts to define sustainability, but most are rooted in the general concept of intergenerational equity. Sustainable development, as used in this paper, means meeting the needs and wants of people of the current generation while leaving equal or better opportunities for people of generations to follow. What is to be sustained? — development of resources: natural, human, and economic. What is the purpose of development? — positive change or human progress, not necessarily growth in numbers or size. Who is to benefit from such development? — people of the current generation and of generations to follow. For how many generations is development to be sustained? — for all future generations, forever. Thus, sustainability is about sustaining a desirable quality of life for people, forever.

Sustainability, as a consequence of its long-run nature, will remain a question with no definite answer, a direction without a precise destination, a process without a final product. We can never know with certainty whether any particular approach, method, or activity is sustainable or not sustainable. Just because something has been sustained until now, does not mean it can be sustained forever. Just because something has not been sustained up to now, does not mean that it could not have been sustained, until now and into the future. We cannot prove empirically that anything is or is not sustainable in the long run. The long run is forever

Inadequacies of the “old” economics

Economic theory does not exist in the absence of the term “ceteris paribus” — other things held constant. The most fundamental “law” of economics, diminishing marginal returns, is meaningless without the assumption of “ceteris paribus.

Economics of Sustainability

So where do we begin to develop the “new” economics?

Axioms. All theory is based on axioms. Webster defines an axiom as “a maxim widely accepted on its intrinsic merit, or a statement accepted as true as the basis for argument or inference”