Well , The week started with stock markets, following stock specific news & updates, then we moved on to CREDAI recommendations for the Budget 2023, later we tried understanding sponsors for Trades means prospective clientele to us Training Module StockMarketModelStreet Marked for Subscribers open for Consultation & Counselling, then we get to know that India has become the LARGEST SITE outside the US in terms of manufacturing & workforce according to Boeing Aerospace, as we follow articles posted by Kailash Kher pertaining to CPPINVESTMENTS in @IndoSpaceInd #logistics & #warehousing, then we move on wherein CREDAI congratulates Hon’ble FM for presenting an inclusive & growth centric budget, Later we shortlist videos of villa properties from Goan REAL ESTATE, the thought is what money can buy, so on & so forth Kailash Kher updates Capital Gains deduction limit of Rs 10Cr to hurt luxury property deals, he also updates that affordable housing gets further boost with higher PMAY infrastructure allocation.
Market Disclosures for the week
Worksheet for the Local Real estate in Bengaluru – As we work on initiating spot inspection of office propertyfor the client , as per stock markets trades disclosures , intraday trade exposures to stocks like TITAN, Ultratech CEMENT,
We Hold RajeshExpo, PowerGrid, Ambuja Cement for Mondays opening Trades
My outlook for next week for the Stock Markets India – Bearish on the Index & Bullish on Stock specific trades. Rangebound movement expected from the market Next week
Stock market talk is everywhere, from TV and radio, to the newspapers and the web. But what does it mean when people say that “the market turned in a great performance today?” What is “the market” anyway?
As it turns out, when most people talk about “the market,” they are actually referring to an index. With the growing importance of the stock market in our society, the names of indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite have become part of our everyday vocabulary.
Historical analysisis an integral component of the study ofhistory. Specifically, it entails interpretation and understanding of various historicalevents, documents and processes.Historyis best understood as not a series of facts, but rather as a series of competing interpretive narratives.
Jotting down, the trade day as & when, benchmark trades, went on good with a negative bias.
hello everyone, nifty slipping by exhilarating indeed an eyewash snapping by.
nifty closing well below 8000 gives us a perspective which can be thoroughed to be one among the circular trades on sustainability of the economy. Nifty closes well above the tipping point of 7800, expecting a negative open for tomorrow as for directional trades.
Directional trades not self evident, momentum & volatality keeping that in mind we can foresee short trades the bearish movement setting up a bearish trend.
Keeping the fingers crossed for tomorrows trades, expected to be the markets for the bears.
Themovementof a security’sprice.Priceaction is encompassed in technical and chart pattern analysis, which attempt to find order in the sometimes seemingly randommovementofprice.
One must go through Bulkowskis Price Movement to understand Stock Price Movement Better.
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.
Abstract
Traditional accounts of “hindsight bias” inadequately distinguish “primary” hindsight bias from both “secondary” and “tertiary” hindsight bias. A subject exhibits primary bias when she assigns a higher ex ante probability estimate to actual outcomes, secondary bias when she believes that she herself would have made the same estimate of the prior probability of an event before receiving outcome information as she made after receiving it, and tertiary bias when she believes that third parties lacking outcome information were unreasonable if they did not make the same prior probability judgments that subjects now possessing such information make.
In our experiments, we find that when people can readily calculate the actual ex ante probability of an outcome, they don’t reassess that probability when told what outcomes actually occurred. They reassess only in situations in which they are unable to assess prior probabilities or when given information that the outcome was not simply a result of sampling or chance but the result of an imperceptible feature of the initial situation. Observed primary bias may therefore often be rational.
Confirmation Bias
It can be difficult to encounter something or someone without having a preconceived opinion. This first impression can be hard to shake because people also tend to selectively filter and pay more attention to information that supports their opinions, while ignoring or rationalizing the rest. This type of selective thinking is often referred to as the confirmation bias.
In investing, the confirmation bias suggests that an investor would be more likely to look for information that supports his or her original idea about an investment rather than seek out information that contradicts it. As a result, this bias can often result in faulty decision making because one-sided information tends to skew an investor’s frame of reference, leaving them with an incomplete picture of the situation.
Consider, for example, an investor that hears about a hot stock from an unverified source and is intrigued by the potential returns. That investor might choose to research the stock in order to “prove” its touted potential is real.
What ends up happening is that the investor finds all sorts of green flags about the investment (such as growing cash flow or a low debt/equity ratio), while glossing over financially disastrous red flags, such as loss of critical customers or dwindling markets.
Hindsight Bias
Another common perception bias is hindsight bias, which tends to occur in situations where a person believes (after the fact) that the onset of some past event was predictable and completely obvious, whereas in fact, the event could not have been reasonably predicted.
Many events seem obvious in hindsight. Psychologists attribute hindsight bias to our innate need to find order in the world by creating explanations that allow us to believe that events are predictable. While this sense of curiosity is useful in many cases (take science, for example), finding erroneous links between the cause and effect of an event may result in incorrect oversimplifications.
For example, many people now claim that signs of the technology bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s (or any bubble from history, such as the Tulip bubble from the 1630s or the SouthSea bubble of 1711) were very obvious. This is a clear example of hindsight bias: If the formation of a bubble had been obvious at the time, it probably wouldn’t have escalated and eventually burst. (To learn more, read The Greatest Market Crashes.)
For investors and other participants in the financial world, the hindsight bias is a cause for one of the most potentially dangerous mindsets that an investor or trader can have: overconfidence. In this case, overconfidence refers to investors’ or traders’ unfounded belief that they possess superior stock-picking abilities.
Avoiding Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias represents a tendency for us to focus on information that confirms some pre-existing thought. Part of the problem with confirmation bias is that being aware of it isn’t good enough to prevent you from doing it. One solution to overcoming this bias would be finding someone to act as a “dissenting voice of reason”. That way you’ll be confronted with a contrary viewpoint to examine.
Terrains 